CONFEDERACY n. 2 definitions
A league or compact between two or more persons, bodies of men, or states, for mutual support or common action; alliance. The friendships of the world are oft Confederacies in vice or leagues of pleasure. Addison. He hath heard of our confederacy. Shak. Virginia promoted a confederacy. Bancroft.
CONJECTURE n. 3 definitions
n, or judgment, formed on defective or presumptive evidence; probable inference; surmise; guess; suspicion. He [Herodotus] would thus have corrected his first loose conjecture by a real study of nature. Whewell. Conjectures, fancies, built on nothing firm. Milton.